As we enter an election year, Ernst & Young are predicting a brighter future for the UK economy, something which many of us will be glad to hear. As the Guardian reports, the economic forecasting group believes that inflation and interest rates will begin to fall in the second half of this year, giving way to growth well into 2025 as well.
This, combined with the fact that pre-election giveaways are a generally accepted political strategy, suggests that businesses and consumers alike have reason for optimism over the next year or so. The chancellor has already hinted at tax reductions, giving a further boost to the markets after the national insurance reduction which came into place in early January.
The jury is out on whether the UK will technically have entered a recession in the last quarter, particularly with the sharp and unexpected weak Christmas shopping period but with the above in mind, this now seems less significant as all of the indicators are that this will be quickly reversed.
So, it seems that the forecast is bright. One thing however that we’ve all learned over the last few years, is that global events can be highly unpredictable. Natural disasters, global pandemics, geopolitical events and any number of other previously unforeseen circumstances all have the power to upset the balance. But for now at least, we can all feel optimistic about the future and businesses can plan with as much certainty as they reasonably can.
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